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Axczel Research Insights

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Macro & Global Markets

How the world outside India moves Indian markets: US bond yields, oil and OPEC, foreign money flows and the economic data behind the headlines.

Illustration of five reasons behind the Indian stock market falling despite economic growth: crude oil, interest rates, the rupee, valuations and AI
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Indian Stock Market Falling Despite 7.8% GDP Growth: 5 Reasons Why

India's GDP grew 7.8% in Q1 FY 2026-27, yet the Nifty 50 fell about 7.7% from its 31 August close to its early-October low. The BBC points to five pressures, high crude oil, rising global interest rates, a weak rupee, still-high valuations and India's missing AI boom, with record foreign outflows of $27.8 billion in 2026 linking them.

October 7, 2026
Pencil sketch of a balloon marked AI being popped by a pin, illustrating AI bubble fears and the IMF warning

Is There an AI Bubble? IMF Warns, Then AI Stocks Slide

The IMF did not call AI a bubble: its October 2026 blog flagged three growing risks, a correction in AI-linked prices, a sharp rise in government bond yields and cyberattacks, and warned about the debt building up behind AI spending. A risk warning is not a crash prediction; the open question is valuation, not whether the technology is real.

Oct 16, 2026
OPEC logo beside oil barrels and a pumpjack at sunset, illustrating the OPEC meeting on November oil output

OPEC Meeting Update: OPEC+ Keeps November Oil Output Steady

OPEC+ kept its November 2026 production targets at September levels. Because actual output is still about 5 million barrels a day below pre-war levels, the targets are not the real limit, and Brent above $100 a barrel keeps the pressure on oil importers like India.

Oct 5, 2026
US bond yields pulling foreign investors away from the Indian stock market toward US Treasury bonds, illustrated by investors in suits walking from a sign reading Indian Stock Market toward a glowing building labeled US Bonds

Why US Bond Yields Are Bad News for Indian Stocks

With the 10-year US Treasury yield around 5.1% to 5.2%, a near risk-free US return raises the bar Indian stocks must clear, so foreign investors pull money out. That is what happened in September 2026, when FPIs withdrew about ₹20,974 crore by the 18th; it is a story about global capital flows, not a verdict on India's economy.

Sep 29, 2026
Magnifying glass over India's core industries — electricity, refinery, steel, cement and fertilizer — illustrating the Index of Core Industries

Cement Is Booming, Coal Isn’t: What India’s Core Industries Data Just Revealed

India's Index of Core Industries grew 4.8% year-on-year in August 2026 (provisional), down from 5.0% in July and about 6.0% in June. Construction-linked sectors such as cement (+12.5%) and electricity (+11.6%) carried the index, while fertilizers, natural gas, coal and crude oil shrank.

Sep 22, 2026