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Axczel Research Insights

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RBI & Banking

Plain-English readings of the Reserve Bank of India’s decisions and data: interest rates, forex reserves, NRI deposits and how well banks report to their regulator.

Line chart of India forex reserves in US$ billion, week by week, from December 2025 to September 2026, with the low in June and the peak in September
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India Forex Reserves: How to Read RBI’s Weekly Numbers Yourself

India's forex reserves are the foreign currency assets and gold held by the RBI, reported every Friday in its Weekly Statistical Supplement; they stood at US$747.6 billion as on 25 September 2026. Foreign currency assets make up about 82% of the total and gold about 14.5%, and the weekly table shows how much each line changed, not why.

October 3, 2026
Cover image reading RBI Rupee Measures: 5 Steps in One Day, What Forex Reserves Show, with a Reserve Bank of India coin and the Axczel Research logo

5 RBI Rupee Measures Announced in One Day: What Happened to Reserves and the Rupee?

RBI rupee measures explained: the 5 steps announced on 10 October 2026, and what forex reserves and the rupee did next.

Oct 28, 2026
Illustration of the RBI headquarters building with economists debating a 25 basis point rate hike, crude oil barrels and rising inflation, ahead of the October 2026 MPC meeting

RBI Rate Hike in October? Here’s What Economists Are Predicting

In a Reuters poll published on 28 September 2026, 35 of 61 economists expected the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% at its 5 to 7 October meeting. They pointed to retail inflation rising to 4.82% in August, oil-driven food prices and a rupee about 6% weaker this year; these are economists' predictions, not an Axczel forecast.

Sep 29, 2026
Painted illustration of a globe, a sign reading FCNR, and stacks of dollar, euro, pound, yen and Canadian dollar coins in front of India Gate.

FCNR Explained: Why the RBI Wants NRIs’ Dollars

FCNR(B) deposits are foreign-currency fixed deposits that only NRIs and OCIs can hold in Indian banks, with interest tax-free in India while you remain an NRI. The RBI wanted these dollars: its special window from 8 June 2026 removed the currency risk for banks and brought in about $133 billion before closing early on 31 August.

Sep 25, 2026
Bar chart titled Trends in sDQI Scores of SCBs, showing sDQI scores for Scheduled Commercial Banks, Public Sector Banks, Private Sector Banks, Foreign Banks and Small Finance Banks in March 2026 versus June 2026, AXCZEL Research branded chart sourced from RBI, padded to 16:9 so no part of the chart is cropped

Banks Are Getting Better at Telling the RBI the Truth — Here’s Why That Should Matter to You

Indian banks are reporting more accurate data to the RBI: its Supervisory Data Quality Index for 87 banks rose to 93.3 in the June 2026 quarter, the highest in five quarters, with 75 banks above 90 and none below 70. The index measures the quality of banks' reporting, not the health of their balance sheets, but better data helps the RBI spot trouble earlier.

Sep 23, 2026